Monday, September 15, 2014

Diplomacy, Not Bombs for ISIS

The Bennis Plan: A Real Strategy for Dealing With ISIS

Monday, 15 September 2014 11:29By Sharmini PeriesThe Real News Network | Video Interview

TRANSCRIPT:
SHARMINI PERIES, EXEC. PRODUCER, TRNN: Welcome to The Real News Network. I'm Sharmini Peries, coming to you from Baltimore. This is an edition of the Phyllis Bennis report.
President Obama on Wednesday laid out a four-point plan to deal with the Islamic State. 
NOOR: Now joining us to unpack the speech is Phyllis Bennis. Phyllis is a fellow directing the New Internationalism Project at the Institute for Policy Studies (IPS) in Washington, D.C. She is also a writer, analyst, and an activist on Middle East and UN issues.
PHYLLIS BENNIS, INSTITUTE FOR POLICY STUDIES: I think what President Obama outlined last night was a four-part military strategy. Only the last one, which had to do with humanitarian support, about which he said virtually nothing, was not military.   All the others were various aspects of military responses. And as he has said himself so many times, there is no military solution to this crisis. So, acting as if we can have a military victory is guaranteeing failure.  What we should have heard from President Obama last night would have been a four-part diplomatic proposal. You know, there's at least four diplomatic things that should be done, but we didn't, unfortunately, hear any real emphasis on that.
PERIES: Can you elaborate on what those four points might have been?
BENNIS: Well, we could start with looking seriously at what is it going to take to change the dynamic of sectarianism in Iraq that creates support for ISIS.   The reason ISIS is so powerful is because they have support on the ground, particularly from Iraqi Sunnis, particularly Sunni tribal leaders and their militias, Sunni generals from the former regime that are providing the kind of military strategy and training for ISIS. So we need to talk seriously about that and figure out what's it going to take to pressure the new Government to reverse that.   It's not going to happen on its own. And the U.S. doesn't have that much power.
So this is a moment when the U.S. needs to engage with Iran, the other influential player in Baghdad. The U.S. and Iran right now are on the same side. Both want a newly inclusive government in Baghdad. So this is a moment for real negotiations, real diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran. That could be number one. Number two--.
PERIES: And can I just interrupt you for a second? There are murmurs that these discussions are going on in secret with the Iranians. Do you know any more on that?
BENNIS: I don't have any information. I think there probably are some very small tactical, low-level negotiations underway that probably have something to do with not getting in each other's way in Iraq, something like that. But I'm talking about something bigger than that. The nuclear talks are going very well. Perhaps this should be a moment to try to expand those talks, to really look at the idea of a grand bargain with Iran that would take up the question of the regional crises and Iran's role legitimizing Iran's role as a regional power. That's perhaps not in the immediate agenda, but that's the kind of Diplomacy we should be thinking about.
Then there's also the question of the coalition. President Obama talked a lot last night about creating a coalition. He even used George Bush's term "the coalition of the willing". What they're talking about is a coalition of the killing once again, just like George Bush did. The coalition that Obama could refer to was a coalition of Europe, the U.S., Canada, and Australia, the white colonials, if you will, along with Turkey. Those are the only countries who are even talking about embracing a military solution in Iraq. And what role the others will play is very, very questionable.
But this idea of the role of a coalition in things like supporting the Syrian training for the moderate Syrian opposition, this doesn't take into account any of the realities on the ground. It doesn't take into account that the Free Syrian Army has actually beheaded people themselves. They beheaded six prisoners they were holding. It doesn't take into account that even under the best of conditions, if you had people who really believe themselves to be supporters of the rule of law, pro-democracy in all those ways, they wouldn't--even after a few months of training, they would not have the ability to withstand an effort by ISIS, for instance, to raid their camps and steal their weapons. So, sending more weapons is only going to guarantee more weapons in the hands of ISIS.
Third, we need to resume the failed diplomacy of a few months back to end the Syrian war, the six wars that are now being waged in Syria in the context of this broad civil war.    The U.S. is President this month of the UN Security Council.   Maybe this is a moment to urge the UN to restart those global negotiations. And just by the way, this could be a moment for the U.S. to resume negotiations with Russia, taking off on the successful negotiations between the U.S. and Russia that led to the destruction of the Syrian chemical weapons arsenal. That could also help the tension that is now underway between the U.S. and Russia on Ukraine. But most importantly, it might be the beginning of real negotiations to end the war in Syria.
And fourth, the question of an arms embargo.    You can have whatever negotiations you want at any of these levels. But as long as all sides are continuing to flood the war zones with more weapons, there's not going to be any hope of a political settlement. There needs to be serious pressure brought to bear on Saudi Arabia, on Qatar, on Turkey, on all the U.S. allies to stop sending weapons to the Syrian opposition, much of it going directly to ISIS.   The U.S., if it has any hope of being able to persuade Russia and Iran to stop arming the Syrian regime, they've got to show some kind of a quid pro quo by pressuring their own allies to stop arming the opposition. So all of these four areas of diplomacy would have been a much better replacement for the four kinds of military that we heard from President Obama.
PERIES: Right. Let me go back to the point you were making about President Obama chairing the Security Council in the upcoming month that he referred to in his speech.   Now, the UN is a body mandated to keep Peace, and Security Council being the strongest organ of that mechanism.   What are some of the concrete things he can do with the Mandate of the UN in mind?
BENNIS: Well, if the U.S. were prepared to engage seriously on the level of Negotiations and Diplomacy and to abandon the level of Demilitarization, there would be enormous options.   The U.S. is the biggest single bloc to the Security Council playing the role that you just spoke of, Sharmini, the role of defending Peace and preventing "the scourge of war," as the UN Charter says. That's not likely to happen.    But one could imagine a scenario in which the U.S. would go to the Security Council and say, look, this is getting very, very dangerous, and we all have some interest in stability, even if we have different sides that we support as our own favorites. We are the champions of different players, if you will, on the ground. But if we could resolve this in the context of the Security Council, it would not only help bring about the possibility of an end to the war in Iraq and a negotiated solution to the crisis around ISIS, but it would also lead to the reinvigoration, if you will, of the Security Council itself, which has been widely discredited around the world because it's viewed as being so much undermined by the U.S.-threatened veto. There have been moments when Russia has threatened to veto, but by far the majority of the vetoes in the last 20 years have been either cast or threatened--most often threatened, because when threatened, everybody else pulls back--by the United States. So if President Obama went to the Security Council and said, this is a moment we are going to rethink our relationship with the Council, we are no longer going to see it as an extension of our own foreign policy, and instead we are going to try to transform it into a real Center of Diplomatic power, that kind of Coalition is exactly what's needed.   What we heard from President Obama, unfortunately, was the idea we're going to go to the Security Council to create a new Coalition of the killing once again. That's not what the United Nations was designed to do. Hopefully, that will not happen at the United Nations. But it could just be a moment, if we could just imagine a different approach.
PERIES: And further, add fuel to the fire, having received the Nobel Peace Prize, this even greater onus on President Obama to actually uphold the Mandate of the UN, it is really--.
BENNIS: One [certainly (?)] hopes.
EDITED
PERIES: Phyllis, just finally, his last point last night was about the Humanitarian mission that the United States will continue to provide.   Is there any indication that previous Humanitarian efforts have been of any use or that it would be sustained?
BENNIS: Yes, this is one where I really did agree with the President's statement. I wish he would have said we are going to escalate.   You know, he talked about escalating everything else, except we're going to maintain--I would've hoped that although the U.S. has pledged significant, large amounts of money to protect Refugees and to provide for the needs of Refugees and internally displaced people, both within and around Syria and Iraq--they need to do more. They need to give more money to the UN agencies who are absolutely overwhelmed by the flood of refugees in all the neighboring countries--in Lebanon, in Turkey, throughout the region, as well as inside Syria in particular, where there are Millions of people now who have been displaced from their homes who have nowhere to go. So the question of expanding that commitment to supporting the UN's work will be very important.
Now, if U.S. tries to take it over, as they have in the past, and especially if they try, as they have in the past, to link Humanitarian work with Military goals, it will fail.   We can look back to the example in Afghanistan, in the first months after the U.S. attacked Afghanistan in the fall of 2001, when they were dropping food packages on the mountains, where it was getting cold. Many Afghans had fled from the bombing, fled into the mountains looking for security and safety, and they had nothing to eat. The U.S. said, we're going to drop food packages. People said, that's not the best way to do it, but nonetheless they did.     But those packages were wrapped in heavy-duty bright yellow plastic wrapping, so that people could see them when they were dropped, and the children would run and find them. That was all fine until the U.S. began dropping cluster bombs wrapped with the same bright yellow plastic wrappings.    Children were killed running to what they thought was food, which turned out to be bombs. That collaboration between U.S. goals, between humanitarian efforts and military goals, is always a disaster for the people on the ground. We can only hope they don't try to do that again.
PERIES: Thank you so much, Phyllis, for joining us. I know how you're busy and how much you are in demand these days, so thanks.
BENNIS: Thank you. It's been a pleasure.
PERIES: And thank you for joining us on The Real News Network.

SHARMINI PERIES

Sharmini Peries is executive producer of strategic planning at The Real News Network.

    Saturday, September 13, 2014

    CA Supremes Remove Citizens United from Nov Ballot

    Why shouldn't California voters get to weigh in on  

    Citizens United?
    Proposition 49 should have stayed on the ballot until the court reaches a final answer
    Got an opinion about the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling in Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission? Feel free to weigh in, just not on the November ballot.
    The California Supreme Court has lodged a preemptive strike against one method of fighting that decision by ruling that Proposition 49 should not be placed 
    on the 2014 general election ballot. Proposition 49 is an advisory measure that 
    would urge Congress to propose a constitutional amendment to overturn the 
    Citizens United decision.
    What's Citizens United? In 201, the U.S. 
    Supreme Court ruled in that case that 
    corporations (and other “artificial entities”) 
    have a 1st Amendment right to spend
    unlimited sums of money to support or 
    oppose political candidates. The court found 
    that corporations must be treated the same as
     living, breathing humans for purposes of 
    making campaign expenditures that are independent of candidates and political 
    parties; the only government interest sufficient to uphold limits on spending is 
    corruption, defined narrowly as quid pro quo corruption; and independent 
    expenditures cannot, as a matter of law, give rise to quid pro quo corruption.
    Many people, myself included, thought Citizens United was flawed for many 
    reasons. It has without doubt ushered in an era of big spending by outside groups
    seeking to influence the outcome of campaigns. Artificial entities are free to raise 
    and spend boundless amounts of money to elect or defeat candidates.
    Proposition 49 would have asked Californians whether Congress should propose, and the Legislature should ratify, a constitutional amendment overturning Citizens United. The Legislature voted to place this nonbinding, advisory opinion proposition on the ballot. The Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Assn., a powerful anti-tax group, sued to remove it, arguing that the Legislature lacks the authority to put advisory measures on the ballot. 
    It is entirely fair to ask whether the electoral ballot should be used for advisory measures. It can lead to crowded ballots, voter confusion (what is mere advice and
     what makes law?) and frustration (“I voted to overturn Citizens United, why didn't 
    it happen?”), and the expenditure of time and resources. The ballot isn't for public interest polls, huffed a spokesman for the Jarvis group. He may be right.
    On the other hand, there is an argument that using the ballot for symbolic purposes is, at times, desirable. The results of ballot measures give all of us — voters, politicians 
    and lawmakers — important information about the public's sentiment.
    But regardless of how that question is ultimately decided, Proposition 49 should 
    have stayed on the ballot until the court reaches a final answer.
    A five-member majority of the California Supreme Court disagreed. The court relied on a 1984 opinion in which it had removed an advisory initiative from the ballot. Initiatives get on the ballot as a result of gathering signatures from the voters. Proposition 49 was placed on the ballot by the Legislature and, thus, isn't an initiative. Hence the court's 1984 case does not necessarily dictate the outcome of this case.
    Using that decision, the court concluded that the harm of allowing Proposition 49 on the ballot as its merits are being decided outweighs the benefits of allowing people to vote on it. The court said the Legislature could simply direct the placement of a version of Proposition 49 on a future ballot, if such measures are held to be valid.
    But as Chief Justice Tani Cantil-Sakauye wrote in the lone dissent, the majority 
    incorrectly weighed the benefits and burdens here. The state Supreme Court has
    typically held that constitutional and other challenges to ballot measures should be resolved after, not before, elections. Indeed, California courts typically lean in favor 
    of allowing ballot measures to go forward and then ruling on their validity afterward. Doing otherwise could, as the court ruled in a 1982 case, “disrupt the electoral process by preventing the exercise of the people's franchise.”
    And, really, what is the great harm caused by allowing Proposition 49 to remain on
     the ballot? As the chief justice pointed out, it seems unlikely that voters would be particularly befuddled by the advisory nature of Proposition 49. Nor would the
     short measure lead to overcrowding of the ballot. If the court later concludes that 
    advisory measures are improper, it would be easy enough to preclude the 
    Legislature from using Proposition 49 for any purpose. This is not complicated.
    However, taking Proposition 49 off the ballot could cause some damage. Voters 
    will not be able to weigh in, at least on the ballot, on the propriety of a 
    Constitutional amendment overturning Citizens United.
    For now, if you object to Citizens United and want to call for a constitutional 
    amendment to overturn it, use the phone, you're not allowed to use the ballot.
    Jessica A. Levinson is an associate clinical professor at Loyola Law School in 
    Los Angeles and vice president of the Los Angeles Ethics Commission. She 
    blogs at PoLawTics.lls.edu; Twitter: @LevinsonJessica

    Obama's Speech Falls Short

     Last night the nation waited to hear how President Obama planned to defeat ISIS.
      Instead of a message of hope, he gave what might be the most discouraging sentencespoken by a president since George "The Moron" Bush was in the White House.
    “This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years.”
    Yemen and Somalia? Good Gawd!
     If Yemen and Somalia are Obama's measures for success, two essentially failed states, then Lawd help us, because this isn't going to end well.
     “The question I have is, If the Obama administration is confident that its strategy in Yemen is correct, then why is Al Qaeda growing in Yemen and why is the group still capable of forcing the United States to shut down embassies in more than a dozen countries?” Gregory D. Johnsen, a scholar and journalist who has written extensively about AQAP asked last year.
    “We continue to assess that AQAP remains the al-Qa‘ida affiliate most likely to attempt transnational attacks against the United States,” National Counterterrorism Center Deputy Director Nicholas Rasmussen told the Senate just today. In contrast, he said, ISIS’ “ability to carry out complex, significant attacks in the West is currently limited.”
     Yemen wasn't a good model to emulate last year when Gregory Johnsen was talking about it. It was an even worse model to emulate when Obama referenced it this July (just days after Obama's statement the State Department told all Americans to flee Yemen for security reasons).
       And Yemen has gotten much worse in just the past few weeks. Just yesterday Amnesty International warned of 'full-blown conflict' in the streets of Sana’a, Yemen's capital, whileSaudi Arabia pulled out their diplomats.
      In southern Yemen AQAP has set up an an islamic emirate.
       But that's not the worst part by a long shot.
     Between the number of threatened coups and the government opening fire on unarmed protesters, Yemen is hardly a model that any country should aspire towards.
     It's not just sad that President Obama couldn't find a better example to use than Yemen. It's downright scary.
       If this is the model to aspire to, then what does Obama's definition of failure look like? What does it say that three years ago President Obama was calling Libya a recipe for success? Libya is now a failed state that France calls a 'terrorist hub'.
      Let's not forget Somalia, probably the most brutalized people on the face of the Earth even before we started bombing them.
     As for Somalia, the United States has been facing off there against al-Shabaab, a group that has plagued the region since 2006 now. In an example of just how hard it is to destroy a group like Shabaab, the United States recently launched a secret mission to kill Ahmed Godane, the head of the terrorist group. The mission was a success. But rather than discouraging the remaining members, the group instead named a new leader and renewed its allegiance to al Qaeda. If these are the countries that are being held up as success stories, the fight against ISIS is going to be even more of a slog than originally assumed.
    Like Iraq, there was no significant al-Qaeda presence in Somalia before Bush The Moron decided to start funding Somali warlords (and later Ethiopia's invasion), but that's all water under the bridge now (along with tens of thousands of dead civilians).
     I'm guessing that President Obama used the examples of Yemen and Somalia because so few Americans were even aware that we were bombing those countries. Which speaks of the ignorance of Americans, not of policy success.
     Something else we should take away from that discouraging sentence is who are these "partners" that we will be working with in Iraq and Syria? A year ago this month President Obama made the effort to clarify that question.
     President Obama waived a provision of federal law designed to prevent the supply of arms to terrorist groups to clear the way for the U.S. to provide military assistance to “vetted” opposition groups fighting Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.
    It's a good thing he did so, because just the other day it was proven that those weapons given to "vetted" partners wound up in the hands of ISIS.
       You know, the guys we just went to war with.
      The real tragedy is that the president and the media never seem to get around to examining how effective/ineffective our bombing is to winning this so-called War on Some Terror.
       Has anyone looked at Afghanistan recently?
       How about Pakistan?
      Those are two other nations, besides Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, and Libya that we've been bombing.
    What do all of those nations have in common?
      They are all worse off than before we started dropping high explosives on them. (except maybe Somalia, which simply couldn't get any worse off)
      Maybe the solution to winning the War on Some Terror isn't to blow up wedding parties.
      Finally, let's consider President Obama's plan for this being primarily a bombing campaign.Rachel Maddow does a good job of cutting through the crap.
     "It may be very convenient to say you support airstrikes, but not combat, or to say you support airstrikes, but not boots on the ground," Maddow said. "But there already are more than 1100 US personnel in Iraq to support the airstrikes that are already happening. God forbid, if American aircraft start to get shot down by this militant group with their anti-aircraft artillery, then you better believe there are going to be boots on the ground and very quickly."
     What do you think the reaction will be the first time ISIS shows a captured American pilot with a knife to his neck on TV?
      One thing Rachel Maddow is wrong about, the number of US troops in Iraq is now over 1,600.
    9:48 AM PT: Bombing ISIS will have a very limited impact.
      That's the overwhelming consensus of analysts and senior Pentagon planning officersand Pentagon director of operations.

    US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel says “military option is not the option that’s going to end the conflict”.
    9:58 AM PT:  Top CIA officials say that drone strikes INCREASE terrorism.
      Don't want to believe CIA officials (I don't blame you), then how about the actual peoplebeing effected.
     Sudarsan Raghavan of the Washington Post reports — after interviews with tribal leaders, victims’ relatives, human rights activists and officials from four provinces in southern Yemen — that "unintended consequence of the attacks has been a marked radicalization of the local population."

        Raghavan notes that since Barack Obama ordered the first air strike in Yemen in 2009,the number of core AQAP members in Yemen have more than doubled from 300 to at least 700.

        Yemen expert Gregory Johnsen of Princeton University told the BCC that the number is closer to 1,000 and the "more the US bombs, the more they grow," noting that al-Qaeda is adept at using the deaths of women and children to recruit people for revenge...

       "That one bombing radicalized the entire area," Abdul Gh ani al-Iryani, a Yemeni political analyst, said. "All the men and boys from those families and tribes will have joined [al-Qaeda] to fight."
     Is there any evidence of this? Look at this chart of terrorist attacks in the world since 2004.
    In particular, look at the charts of terrorist attacks in Asia and the Middle East, our theaters of action in the War on Some Terror.
    attribution: None Specified

    ORIGINALLY POSTED TO GJOHNSIT ON THU SEP 11, 2014 AT 09:17 AM PDT.

    ALSO REPUBLISHED BY ADALAH — A JUST MIDDLE EAST.